Florida's public universities look like a safe bet. On a newly-released map of college financial stability released this fall, 10 of Florida's 12 public universities land in the strongest category. The pressure in Florida sits mostly among small private colleges that depend heavily on tuition.
What the map measures
The map is Mapping the Structural Divide, built by Kyle Saunders, a political science professor at Colorado State University, from public federal data. Version 1.5, released October 1, 2026, scores 1,557 four-year nonprofit colleges from 0 to 1 on two questions:
Resilience: could the college absorb a financial or enrollment shock? This combines endowment per student, the share of revenue that does not come from tuition, enrollment change since 2019-20 and selectivity.
Market position: how well are its graduates set up for the job market? This combines graduation rate, graduates' earnings relative to their debt, how exposed their likely first jobs are to AI, and whether the state's pool of high school graduates is projected to grow or shrink.
Split at the national middle on each scale, colleges fall into four groups. High Capacity schools are strong on both. High Stress schools are below the middle on both. Market Misaligned schools have solid finances but weaker graduate outcomes, and Structurally Exposed schools have good graduate outcomes but thin finances.
Saunders calls this a classification tool, not a ranking and not a prediction of closures. We read it the same way: a label tells a family where to ask harder questions.
Florida public universities are among the most stable in the country
Of the 66 Florida colleges on the map, 26 (39%) are High Capacity and 19 (29%) are High Stress. Nationally, each group holds about 32%. The public universities explain most of Florida's advantage.
Ten of them sit in High Capacity: University of Florida, Florida State University, University of South Florida, University of Central Florida, Florida International University, Florida Atlantic University, University of North Florida, University of West Florida, Florida Gulf Coast University and New College of Florida. Saunders re-ran his scores 20 different ways, changing weights and swapping measures, and all ten stay High Capacity in at least 90% of those versions. These are not borderline calls.
The University of Florida's market-position score of 0.82 out of 1 is higher than those of five of the eight Ivy League schools: Columbia University, Cornell University, Brown University, Dartmouth College and the University of Pennsylvania. Its graduation rate and its graduates' earnings relative to debt rank in the top 6% nationally, close to Ivy level. Florida's stronger outlook for high school graduates does the rest. New York, home to Columbia University and Cornell University, ranks near the bottom on that measure. For families aiming at Gainesville, our University of Florida admissions guide covers what it takes to get in.
The two exceptions are Florida Agricultural and Mechanical University (FAMU) and Florida Polytechnic University, both Market Misaligned. Both are financially solid. FAMU’s placement reflects graduates' earnings relative to their debt. Florida Polytechnic University has no earnings data in the federal files, and its engineering-heavy program mix scores as highly exposed to AI (i.e., the potential for disruption is high). The California Institute of Technology lands in the same group for similar reasons, which says more about the measures than about the schools.
Only four of Florida's 30 public institutions are High Stress (13%, against 31% of public colleges nationally), and all four are state colleges that also grant bachelor's degrees.
Where the risk sits: Florida private colleges
Several well-known Florida private colleges score well. The University of Miami, Rollins College, Stetson University and Palm Beach Atlantic University are High Capacity – strong on both counts. Nova Southeastern University and the University of Tampa are Structurally Exposed: their graduates do well, but tuition makes up most of their core revenue.
Of 36 Florida private nonprofit colleges on the map, 15 (42%) are High Stress, against 32% of private colleges nationally. That label does not mean a school is shrinking. Lynn University grew 4% between 2019-20 and 2024-25, Barry University held steady, and St. Thomas University grew 59%. Their placement reflects modest endowments and heavy reliance on tuition, which covers 81% to 85% of core revenue at all three, against a 56% median for private colleges nationally.
Enrollment is the sharper warning sign, and 8 of the 15 also lost students. Saint Leo University's 12-month headcount fell 35% over those five years and Flagler College's fell 18%.
The national numbers explain why tuition-dependent colleges feel this first. According to WICHE projections reported by Higher Ed Dive, the number of U.S. high school graduates peaks around 2025 and falls about 10.5% below 2023 levels by 2041. On the map's 2024–2030 projection, Florida's pipeline looks stronger than in most states, but private colleges that recruit from shrinking states will feel this demographic cliff sooner than Florida's public universities.
How to use the map when building a Florida college list
Here is how we use it with families:
Look up each private college on the list. The map's free search tab shows a school's group and its scores on all eight measures. Check enrollment change and tuition dependence first; they are the clearest signs of college financial stability.
Ask direct questions on campus visits. How has first-year enrollment changed over five years? Has the college cut programs recently? What happens to current students if a major is discontinued? Admissions officers at stable schools answer these easily.
Separate the label from the school. Lynn University is High Stress and still growing. A label is a reason to ask the questions above. If your student already holds an offer from a High Stress school, ask them before the deposit deadline.
Weigh the major along with the college. The map's AI measure varies little from one college to the next but widely by field. Business and computer science graduates enter jobs with about twice the entry-level AI exposure of biology graduates, even though those fields pay well right now.
Take the public universities seriously. For a Florida resident, the state system offers financial stability at a price many private colleges cannot match. For most students, the harder question is admission.
Counselors can use the same search tab to answer the stability question when a family raises it. We added this check to the college guidance process we run with each family, alongside the steps in our guide to checking any college's financial stability with free tools. For students aiming at the public universities, our breakdown of what it takes to be admitted to Florida's 12 state universities covers GPA recalculation and test score ranges, and Score At The Top's Florida's Dozen resource collects admission profiles for all 12.
Saunders plans to refresh the data each fall. As the national pool of graduates shrinks, we expect the gap between Florida's public universities and its tuition-dependent private colleges to widen, and next year's map will show whether it does.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are Florida's public universities financially stable?
Yes. Ten of Florida's 12 public universities are High Capacity, the strongest group on the 2026 University Map, and all 10 stay there in at least 90% of the alternative scoring methods tested. Florida Agricultural and Mechanical University and Florida Polytechnic University are financially solid but score lower on graduate outcomes.
Are any Florida colleges at risk of closing?
The map does not predict closures, and its author says so directly. It shows that 15 of Florida's 36 private nonprofit colleges are below the national middle on both financial resilience and graduate outcomes, and 8 of those have lost students since 2019-20. Those are the schools where families should ask about enrollment trends and program cuts.
Should my student avoid a college labeled High Stress?
No. The label reflects finances and graduate outcomes, not teaching quality, and several High Stress schools in Florida are growing. Check the college's enrollment trend and tuition dependence on the map, then ask the admissions office about recent program changes. A school with steady enrollment and a good fit can still be the right choice.
Where can I look up a specific college?
The University Map has a free search tab that shows any four-year nonprofit college's group and its scores on all eight measures. The full dataset can be downloaded as a spreadsheet under a free Creative Commons license, which makes it easy to compare every college on a list side by side.
JRA Educational Consulting helps families choose colleges that fit academically and hold steady financially. To learn more, visit jraeducationalconsulting.com.
